Soybean Ending Stocks Revised Slightly Higher

US old- and new-crop soybean ending stocks estimates have been revised slightly higher from last month amid a downgrade in the 2023-24 crush estimate. 

In updated supply-demand estimates released Wednesday, the USDA trimmed its old-crop soybean crush estimate by 10 million bu from last month to 2.29 billion bu. That reduction pushed the 2023-24 US soybean ending stocks estimate higher by an identical 10 million to 350 million – which then carried through to boost 2024-25 ending stocks by the same amount to 455 million. 

The increases in the old- and new-crop stocks estimates from last month were both slightly larger than expected by the trade, with soybean futures trading 1-3 cents lower this afternoon. 

The USDA left its estimate of 2023-24 Argentina soybean production steady from last month at 50 million tonnes, despite expectations for a small reduction. The Brazil crop was reduced 1 million tonnes from last month to 153 million but that still easily topped the average pre-report trade estimate of just under 152 million. 

The USDA in May trimmed Brazil’s soy crop by 1 million tonnes from April due to flooding in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, and a heftier cut was expected today amid rising production loss estimates from that state. 

Global soybean ending stocks for 2023-24 are pegged at 111.07 million tonnes this month, down only slightly from 111.78 million in May and still above the average trade guess of 110.33 million. Projected new-crop world soybean ending stocks, at 127.9 million tonnes, were lowered from 128.5 million in May but are still a bit heavier than expected. 

At US$12.55/but the average expected 2023-24 soybean price is unchanged from last month, while the new-crop estimate of $11.20 is also steady. New-crop soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged from last month as well, at $330/short ton and 42 cents/lb, respectively.