Hog profits have been record high in recent months which is a good reason to anticipate a fast growing sow herd. Adjusted for imports, slaughter of U.S. sows during March-May was down 6.9%, out of a sow herd that was 0.3% larger than 12 months earlier. However, our gilt slaughter data show fewer gilts retained this spring than last. I believe the PED virus is slowing herd growth.
In their last inventory report, USDA predicted that March-May farrowings would be up 2.4% compared to 12 months earlier and June-August farrowings would be 2.0% higher than a year earlier. I think that spring farrowings were up 2.0%. I'm forecasting summer farrowings to be up 2.4% and September-November farrowings to be up 2.8% compared to last fall.
I'm estimating the PED virus caused pigs per litter to be down 5.0% this spring. USDA said pigs per litter last winter were down 5.5% compared to a year earlier. My estimate is the March-May pig crop was down 3.1% from a year earlier.
If my market hog inventory estimates are close to right, hog slaughter during the third quarter of 2014 should be down roughly 4% compared to a year-ago. I expect hog slaughter during the fourth quarter to be down 3% compared to the number slaughtered in October-December 2013.
Source: AGEBB