By Gary Schnitkey, and Nick Paulson et.al
The House of Representatives passed their budget reconciliation bill early in the morning on May 22, 2024; the final vote was close, 215 to 214 (1 voting present), and largely along party lines with two Republicans joining all Democrats in opposition to the bill (Tully-McManus and Scholtes, May 22, 2025; Bogage, Sotomayor, Choi, and Kane, May 22, 2025; Edmonson, Miller, and Jimison, May 22, 2025). The reconciliation effort now moves to the Senate. Independent analysis of the bill from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) was recently released, providing CBO’s projections of the costs of each title and sections within each title (CBO, May 20, 2025). As previously discussed, the House reconciliation bill includes changes to Farm Bill programs in the jurisdiction of the House Agriculture Committee (farmdoc daily, May 20, 2025; May 14, 2025). This article adds to the discussion with a review of the CBO cost projections, or score, of the legislation.
Background
The topline projections by CBO for the House Reconciliation Bill are illustrated in Figure 1. In total, CBO projects the House Reconciliation Bill to spend an additional $3.99 trillion, most of it ($3.775 trillion) in the provisions that extend existing tax cuts that are set to sunset or add new provisions to reduce or alter taxes. The remaining expenditures are for immigration efforts (Homeland Security and Judiciary) and for the military (Armed Services). CBO also projects a total reduction in outlays or spending of $1.689 trillion. The net effect on the deficit, according to CBO projections, is that the bill will add $2.3 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 fiscal years (FY2025-2034). Note that CBO scored the bill against January 2025 baseline projections (CBO, January 2025).