Pulse Market Insight #279

Pulse Crop Conditions & Yield Guesses

Let’s be honest, when trying to figure out crop yields, there’s always plenty of guesswork involved. There are lots of information sources, including 60-mph crop tours, reports from people in the field, satellite vegetation maps, comparisons to previous years and provincial crop reports. Each one has its place and we try to incorporate them all when coming up with our own yield guesses.

The provincial crop reports are one of the more useful sources. In part, that’s because they’ve been around for quite a while, which allows for year-to-year comparisons. They also use a consistent approach each year and cover a lot of ground; I could spend my whole summer driving all over the prairies each week and still wouldn’t be able to reach all the areas covered by the crop reporters. Just like StatsCan’s numbers, the crop reports aren’t perfect, but they provide some valuable input.

There have been a lot of ups and downs in prairie weather so far this summer, with some areas experiencing more downs than ups. Overall though, one theme we’ve been hearing fairly often is that pulses are handling this year’s weather better than most other crops. While there are some trouble spots, disease seems to be less of an issue than the last few years and cooler temperatures this July are positive for pulses in the blooming and podding stages.

These reports we’re getting from the field are confirmed by the ratings in Alberta and Sask Ag crop reports, which show improvements in the last few weeks. In Alberta, the pea crop ratings have moved higher and are now at 65% good or excellent, slightly ahead of the 10-year average while in Saskatchewan, the good/exc rating has improved to 73%, well above the average. Keep in mind, the “average” line on the chart shows that ratings tend to head lower during the summer season and the fact that ratings are rising this year is a more important signal than the absolute number.