Pulse Market Insight #272

Apr 01, 2025

Indian Market Update

With all the other things going on in pulse markets, the situation in India has almost faded into the background, but it remains a critical part of the outlook. India’s rabi harvest includes lentils, peas and chickpeas and is now in its late stages. The outcome of this rabi crop is one of the key factors in the Indian government’s decisions about allowing or restricting imports.

Earlier in March, Indian Ag Ministry released its first estimates of the 2025 rabi harvest, which showed modest increases for all three pulse crops that are important to the Canadian market. In this report, the government’s initial estimates are based on average yields and this year, that’s a reasonable assumption. Growing conditions have been generally favourable across most producing areas of India, which should put average yields within reach.

Production of gram (desi and kabuli chickpeas) was reported at 11.54 mln tonnes, up 4.5% from last year but still lower than the 5-year average of 11.97 mln tonnes. The lentil (red) crop was pegged at 1.82 mln tonnes, which would be only 1.5% better than last year but well above the 5-year average of 1.44 mln tonnes. Pea production is not broken out separately and is included with “other rabi pulses” and that category was reported at 1.90 mln tonnes, 6.7% larger than last year.

As with any government crop estimates, there’s always plenty of disagreement about the numbers. For the last few years, private estimates in India have been consistently lower than the government numbers, often by a lot, and this year is no exception. These sources suggest the chickpea crop is too large by at least a million tonnes, if not more. For lentils, the differences are 200-300,000 tonnes. If domestic production really is lower, the Indian government might need to rethink its import tariffs in the coming months, depending on supply levels and prices.

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