Production boom meets stagnant demand in pork markets

The Rabobank quarterly report shows that there are some problems in the pork industry. There's more pork being produced, but not enough global appetite to match. 

Regions are bouncing back from the production challenges of 2022 and 2023. And while some still face health issues, the general picture shows healthier herds. Christine McCracken of Rabobank points out that cost-saving measures, driven by inflation, have bolstered production. However, this boon is creating an oversupply in several regions. 

Despite these challenges, there's slow reduction in breeding herds, except in Europe and South Korea. The global trade outlook remains subdued. 

A silver lining for producers has been the dip in feed prices. A robust North American harvest and anticipated good yields in South America have helped. But with the onset of El Niño, unpredictability looms. 

For consumers, inflation has caused a shift towards value-based buying. While pork remains popular, there's a notable shift in how and where it's bought. With other proteins being pricier, and a trend towards home-cooked meals, pork could see a steady consumption. 

Yet, external factors like geopolitical tensions might alter consumer behavior into 2024. Rabobank, however, remains optimistic about steady pork consumption next year due to its cost advantage. 

The past couple of months have witnessed a slowing down in pork trade, attributed to high EU pork prices and an abundance of frozen pork in import countries. This trend, McCracken believes, might continue into the year's end.