Old-Crop Mustard, Canary Ending Stocks at Zero

There is likely at least still some tucked away in farm bins, but Canada is officially sold out of old-crop mustard and canaryseed. 

In its latest monthly supply-demand estimates on Thursday, Agriculture Canada lowered its 2021-22 ending stocks estimates for both mustard and canary by 5,000 tonnes from last month. With the reductions, old-crop ending stocks for the two crops are now zero – at least on paper. 

For mustard, the fall in ending stocks was due to an upward revision in the old-crop export estimate, which climbed to 105,000 tonnes from 85,000 in June. That increase was offset by slashing total domestic use to zero from 15,000 tonnes, followed by also cutting ending stocks to nothing. 

Due to Prairie drought, Canadian mustard production fell by about half in 2021 to just 50,000 tonnes. With an old-crop carryin of 40,000 and imports of 15,000, the total 2021-22 supply was just 105,000 tonnes – all of which evidently went to exports. According to Ag Canada, the US and the EU have been the main export markets for Canadian mustard seed. 

The decline in the canaryseed ending stocks estimate from June was also due to a higher export estimate, which jumped to 145,000 tonnes from 130,000. As with mustard, Ag Canada offset the higher export number by taking domestic use down to zero from 10,000 tonnes last month and flatlining ending stocks. The EU and Mexico have been the main markets for Canadian canaryseed in 2021-22, followed by countries in South America. 

Canary production fell less severely than mustard in 2021, dropping by about one-third to 119,000 tonnes. Combined with the old-crop carryin, that pushed the total 2021-22 supply to 145,000 tonnes. 

Looking ahead to 2022-23, Ag Canada sees mustard production rebounding to 175,000 tonnes – up from the June estimate of 145,000 - with ending stocks building to 30,000 tonnes. 

Canary output is now expected to reach 163,000 tonnes in 2022-23, compared to the June estimate of 150,000. However, Ag Canada actually reduced its new-crop canaryseed ending stocks estimate to 5,000 tonnes this month from 10,000 in June due to an upward revision in expected exports. 

Ag Canada sees new-crop mustard and canary prices at $2,050 and $900/tonne, respectively, unchanged from June but down from $3,000 and $1,125 in 2021-22.