Oat Production to See Rebound; Barley Sharply Lower

Canadian oat production is projected to rise in 2024 from last year’s small crop, while barley output is expected to fall sharply. 

Statistics Canada’s crop production report Wednesday pegged the national barley crop at 7.468 million tonnes, down 16.1% from the slightly upwardly revised 2023 crop of 8.905 million. It marks the smallest barley crop since 2014 at 7.116 million tonnes, excluding the 2021 drought year when output fell to just 6.983 million. 

Meanwhile, oat production is estimated at 2.91 million tonnes, a 10.1% increase from the revised 2023 crop of 2.643 million, which was the smallest since 2010. 

The barley and oat production estimates fell short of Agriculture Canada’s August supply-demand projections, which put the two crops at 7.878 million and 3.191 million tonnes, respectively. 

At 5.723 million acres, estimated barley harvested area is down 14.3% on the year, while the average yield is expected to fall 2.1% to 59.9 bu/acre. Excluding the 2021 drought year (43.1 bu/acre), it would be the lowest national barley yield since 2012 at 53.9 bu. 

For oats, the increase in expected 2024 production is driven by a larger harvested area, which is expected to rise by 14.6% to 2.339 million acres, offsetting lower yields, which are projected to fall by 3.8% year over year to 80.7 bu/acre. It would also represent the lowest average oat yield since 2012 at 73.9 bu/acre, excluding the 2012 drought year’s 62.7 bu. 

Based on satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, today’s production estimates reflect conditions as of the end of July. Across parts of the Prairies, lower-than-average precipitation and prolonged high temperatures have resulted in a decline in crop conditions from the beginning of the season, although conditions were up in some areas compared with a year earlier, StatsCan said.