New-Crop All Wheat Output Seen Higher in 2025; Oats and Barley Too

Canadian all wheat production is forecast to tick slightly higher in 2025, even if a smaller durum crop is expected. 

New-crop supply-demand estimates released by Statistics Canada Monday pegged this year’s all wheat production at 35.025 million tonnes, up fractionally from 34.958 million last year and potentially the largest crop since 2020 at 35.437 million. Wheat (excl durum) production for 2025 is forecast at 29.873 million tonnes, up nearly 2.7% on the year, offsetting a projected 12.2% fall in durum output to 5.152 million. 

With a slight decline in expected average yields this year, the entire increase in all wheat production is due to projected larger wheat (excl durum) planted area, seen rising 3.8% on the year to 20.72 million acres. On the other hand, durum planted area for this year is estimated to fall 4.8% to 6.05 million acres. 

At 650,000 tonnes, projected 2025-26 durum ending stocks would be unchanged from the previous year and up from 407,000 in 2023-24, while the estimated season average price of $310/tonne just $10 lower than a year earlier.  

Wheat (excl durum) ending stocks for 2025-26 are seen at 4 million tonnes, up 200,000 from the 2024-25 forecast but still below 4.208 million in 2023-24. The average non-durum wheat price is estimated at $305/tonne, up $10 on the year. 

Meanwhile, Ag Canada is forecasting more oat and barley acres in 2025 and bigger output for both crops. 

Barley planted area is estimated at 6.67 million acres, up 4.1% on the year, while production is seen 5.6% higher at 8.6 million tonnes – still down from 8.905 million in 2023. Ending stocks are pegged at 750,000 tonnes, an increase of 50,000 from 2024-25. At $285/tonne, the average new-crop barley price is expected $10 lower from 2024-25.