National Corn Output Little Changed from August; Soybeans Up Slightly

Statistics Canada’s September production forecast points to a steady Canadian corn outlook compared with August, while the soybean estimate has increased slightly. 

According to Wednesday’s Statistics Canada model-based production estimates, 2025 national corn production will amount to 15.5 million tonnes, down marginally from the federal agency’s August forecast of 15.552 million but still 1% larger than last year’s 15.402 million. At 165.3 bu/acre, the average national corn yield is down slightly from 165.9 in August and below 168.1 in 2024. 

Nationwide soybean production is pegged at 7.133 million tonnes, slightly above the August forecast of 7.016 million but 5.7% below last year’s 7.563 million. Yields are now estimated at 45.7 bu/acre, versus 45 in August and 49.1 in 2024.  

Ontario’s corn crop remains unchanged from August at 9.905 million tonnes, a 2.9% gain from last year’s 9.628 million and the second largest on record. Expanded harvested area (+3.4% to 2.2 million acres) is offsetting a slight dip in yields, at 179.1 bu/acre compared to 180 bu in 2024. 

Soybean production in the province is projected at 3.972 million tonnes, virtually steady with August but down 8.8% from 4.357 million a year ago. Harvested area is expected to contract by 7% to 2.9 million acres, while yields are pegged at 50.8 bu/acre, down 0.1 bu from September and slightly below last year’s 51.8. 

Manitoba corn production is also unchanged from August at 1.948 million tonnes. That represents a 10.3% gain from 2024, driven by a 19.6% expansion in harvested area to nearly 600,000 acres. Yields, however, are expected to fall sharply to 128.6 bu/acre from 139.4 last year, reflecting the impact of dry weather.