Modest Increase Forecast in Canadian Pork Production in 2025 and Higher Prices

A Guelph based hog market analyst is forecasting a modest increase in Canadian pork production in 2025 and higher prices.“The Competitive Status of the Canadian Pork Industry,” was the topic of a keynote address last week at Saskatchewan Pork Industry Symposium 2024 in Saskatoon.

Kevin Grier, with Kevin Grier Market Analysis and Consulting, says Canada is the sixth largest pork producer in the world but the fourth largest exporter so, as the old saying goes, it punches above its weight.

Quote-Kevin Grier-Kevin Grier Market Analysis and Consulting:

In terms of the outlook for 2025 I'm expecting, based on the last Hogs and Pigs Report, to have a modest increase in production in 2025.We have less beef because of where we are at in the cattle cycle and we're going to have less beef next year and the year after that so pork should be able to make competitive gains in the meat case or on the menu at restaurants so, in some respects, the pork industry is probably hoping that pork can gain market share at the expense of beef.

We still will be aggressive exporters and I'm hoping to see, for the sake of the industry, improved demand in 2025 because of the beef situation so we should have more production.But, probably and hopefully for the sake of producers, we should see an increased price in 2025 compared to 2024.Again, part of our keys is the fact that we are a low-cost producer at the farm level.

According to data from InterPIG, Canada is always among the lowest cost producers in the world, a little bit higher cost than Brazil or the United States, but always right there among the most competitive in terms of producer production costs.We may not be a low-cost producer at the packer level but we compete in other ways, through increased quality specifications, service, that sort of thing so from the farm to the packer we are competitive industry and that's how we compete, on costs but also on service and quality.

Grier invites any interested to contact him at kevingrier.com to request a three-month trial subscription to his Canadian Pork Market Report.
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