By Ryan Hanrahan
Progressive Farmer’s Mary Kennedy reported Monday that “as fall harvest of record corn and soybean crops is in full swing, river conditions continue to worsen, stalling barges trying to move up and down the Lower Mississippi River (LMR). In addition, barge drafts and tow sizes have been cut.”
“Ceres Consulting said in their daily barge freight email, ‘Hot and dry weather in the Midwest over the past two weeks is pushing harvest along ahead of average. River stages Cairo south continues to fall and currently at 11’6″, with 11’0″ expected early the week of Oct. 14. Memphis river stage is falling and given dry weather over the next week, we’ll see more draft cuts coming,'” Kennedy reported. “A normal draft — the distance between the waterline and the deepest point of the boat — for a barge when river conditions are good is about 12 feet at 1,500 tons. On the Illinois River, barges are regularly loaded to about a 9-foot draft at 900 tons. Each foot of draft that is reduced means a barge’s cargo is cut by 200 tons and will cost shippers money as they are paying the same amount of freight to ship less. In addition, that will create the need for more barges to pick up the slack.”
“In turn, those costs may be passed on to farmers who haul grain to river terminals or, worst case, river terminals in the low water areas may have to stop taking grain,” Kennedy reported. “So far, there haven’t been any reports of that happening yet and after checking corn basis bids at some of the terminals in the LMR, there is no indication, yet that basis is weaker due to current conditions. However, that all could change as river levels continue to fall.”
Current River Levels
Kennedy reported that “on Sunday evening, Oct. 13, the Mississippi River gauge at Memphis, Tennessee, read -5.39 feet below zero gauge. And it’s falling fast. On Friday morning, Oct. 11, it was -2.36 feet below zero gauge. The NWS on their Facebook page said, ‘behind this rise (from Helene) we are not seeing any rainfall over the next 16 days, and we anticipate that the Lower Ohio and Mississippi Rivers will continue to recede back to low flow conditions.'”
“A recent post on the U.S. National Weather Service Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center Facebook page said, ‘the forecast now has Cairo dropping below 10 ft and the USACE Great Lakes and Ohio River Division has resumed low water operations with partners for additional coordination beginning this week. Discharges are being regulated to mitigate lower stages at Cairo. Toward the end of October and early November, we are seeing the potential for significant low stages in the 5.5 ft range at Cairo with no additional rainfall,'” Kennedy reported.
River Sees Low Levels for Third Year in a Row
Harvest Public Media’s Kate Grumke reported at the end of September that “in 2022 and 2023, Mississippi river levels broke record lows near Memphis, said Brad Rippey, a meteorologist with the USDA. So far this year hasn’t reached record-breaking levels. While late summer and early fall are typically dry in this part of the country, Rippey said the low water levels three years running stand out.”
“‘It’s unusual to see three years back to back to back, where we see near record low levels, or as we saw in Memphis last year, record-setting low river levels,” he said according to Grumke’s reporting. “There are longer-term trends affecting water levels on the Mississippi. Climate change is making rainfall come in shorter, heavier bursts, with rainfall that runs off instead of soaking into the ground.”
“‘With the climate change, you go both ways,’ Rippey said,” according to Grumke’s reporting. “‘Higher highs on the river levels, lower lows. And of course, those highs are complicated by management of the waterways, as well.’ Efforts to control the river and protect communities from floods have come at a price, Rippey said, by increasing flow speeds on the Mississippi.”
Source : illinois.edu