US and World
It’s that time of the year again. January represents a time of cold, snow, ice, etc., etc. as the great North America corn belt hibernates over winter. Farm plans are being recalibrated and past cropping results reviewed. Meanwhile, marketing never stops. Prices have softened into 2024 under the burden of memories and basic fundamentals of big crops last summer. On January 12th, the USDA weighed in with their “final” estimate on how big last year’s crop really was.
USDA made big crops bigger. US corn production was set at a record 177.3 bushels per acre which was well above the pre report expectations. Total US corn production is now estimated to be 15.34 billion bushels. Soybeans also were increased to 50.6 bushels per acre putting total production at 4.17 billion bushels. Higher corn production translates into higher ending stocks which now sit at 2.162 billion bushels, which is up 31 million bushels from the December report. Globally, USDA lowered Brazil’s corn production by 2 MMT to 127 MMT. Argentina’s production was held at 55 MMT.
USDA’s soybean estimate was higher, but still the smallest soybean crop in four years. 4.17 billion bushels was still very good for last year’s smokey summer. With the increase in supply, US soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 were increased to 280 million bushels. USDA increased the Argentinian soybean production by 2 MMT up to 50 MMT, while reducing the Brazilian production 4 MMT to 157 MMT. American farmers planted 34.4 million acres to winter wheat this past fall, down 6% compared to last year and below the average pre-report estimate of 35.9 ma.