March Sees Drop in U.S. Farmer Sentiment

Policy Concerns Drive Decline in Agricultural Outlook

In March 2025, the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer indicated a 12-point drop in farmer sentiment to a score of 140, down from 152 the previous month.

This decrease was largely fueled by a gloomy outlook on future conditions, with the Future Expectations Index falling to 144, a 15-point decline. Additionally, the Current Conditions Index saw a modest reduction of 5 points to 132.

A significant downturn in key crop prices since mid-February, coupled with rising concerns about the future of agricultural trade and policy, significantly influenced this sentiment shift.

Despite these challenges, farmers displayed more optimism about future conditions than the current situation, with the Future Expectations Index remaining 12 points higher than the Current Conditions Index.

The investment landscape for farmers also seemed bleak. The Farm Capital Investment Index dropped to 54, down 5 points, although it was still the second-highest reading since June 2021.

The Farm Financial Performance Index decreased by 8 points to 102, indicating only a slight expected improvement over the previous year's performance.

Concerns are mounting over U.S. agricultural exports and trade policies. Since the November 2024 election, the importance of trade policy has surged, with 43% of respondents marking it as the most critical policy affecting their operations. This heightened concern aligns with the all-time low expectations for U.S. agricultural exports over the next five years, as reported in March.

Farmers also anticipate policy actions similar to the 2019 Market Facilitation Program to counter potential trade war impacts, with 65% considering it likely or very likely.

The necessity for a new farm bill is also palpable, with 74% of farmers stressing its importance for their future.

As these factors converge, the collective farmer outlook remains cautious yet hopeful for potential governmental support in light of the challenging economic landscape.