Map: Prairie Dryness in July Likely to Extend into August

Dryness and heat featured across much of Western Canada in July, and more of the same could be in store for August. 

As the map here shows, rainfall was well below normal for most of the Prairies over the past 30 days, with eastern Manitoba being the only real exception. The dryness has been a bitter pill for many farmers, who have watched their crops go backward after much improved moisture in the spring got the 2024 growing season off to a more promising start compared to previous years. 

Meanwhile, no significant relief appears to be in the cards. A monthly outlook released Thursday by the Weather Network said the Prairies are likely to remain warm and dry overall in August – regardless of the potential for some localized storms and torrential downpours. 

“Above-seasonal temperatures and below-seasonal precipitation will dominate conditions across British Columbia and much of the Prairies, which is terrible news for both wildfires and agriculture throughout the region,” the Weather Network said. 

The latest monthly edition of the Canadian Agriculture Weather Prognosticator from World Weather said at least some of the blame for the drier July weather is due to the fact a widely expected La Nina event has thus far failed to evolve. Indeed, World Weather described La Nina as the primary ingredient forecasters around the world were pinning their hopes on to bring about a significant change in current weather patterns – “making wetter areas drier and drier areas wetter.” 

World Weather said it is still possible a confluence of factors could come together at just the right time to bring more notable rain to the Prairies in August, but chances remain low. 

“The (weather) pattern that has evolved is a very stable one, and unless some strange tropical activity takes place to bring moisture to central North America and the Prairies, it will be a long wait for significant rain to materialize,” the Prognosticator said.