Low to Moderate Risk of Significant Spring Flooding for Manitoba

Manitoba is facing just a low to moderate risk of significant spring flooding this year, according to the provincial Hydrological Forecast Centre. 

With normal- to below-normal soil moisture at freeze-up and well-below-normal to above-normal winter precipitation for most Manitoba basins, the March Flood Outlook report on Tuesday said the risk of significant spring flooding is low to moderate for most Manitoba basins. Water levels are expected to remain below dikes and community or individual flood protection levels.  

The spring flooding risk is low for the Red River and tributaries, low to moderate for the Assiniboine River and tributaries and the Interlake region including the Icelandic and Fisher rivers; and generally low for the Souris, Qu’Appelle, Rat, Roseau, Pembina, Saskatchewan and Churchill river basins, and the Whiteshell Lakes region. Most Manitoba lake levels are normal to below normal and forecasted to remain within their operating range after the spring runoff, the outlook added. 

However, a government news release said the risk of flooding could still change depending on future weather conditions “including rate of snow melt and the timing and amount of snow and rain received between now and the spring runoff.” 

There is no significant precipitation in the forecast for much of Manitoba over the next seven days, although there is possibility of a system that could bring significant precipitation to the US portion of the Red River basin. 

Also on Tuesday, the province released a bulletin warning that widespread dry conditions could lead to a higher wildfire danger as the snow melts. 

“Continued dry conditions can cause deeper burning fires that require more suppression to extinguish,” the bulletin said. “Conditions will be monitored over the next few weeks, and fire danger levels will be calculated when forested areas are snow free.”