La Nina conditions likely to avoid fall frosts for Canadian prairies

North America is currently in a transitory period in terms of weather systems, with the timing of that transition likely to affect conditions for crops around the prairies.

That'll eventually change into a LaNinna system, which for our southern neighbours means that frosts could creep in early and disrupt harvest.

Environment Canada Meteorologist Natalie Hasell says that people in the Canadian prairies don't need to worry as much.

"Even if La Nina did develop sooner than that, we tend not to see much of an effect from La Nina in the summer period or even in the fall period for that matter. The greatest effects are in the winter, so we could see La Nina developing between now and October and a very good chance that once it is set in, it'll be around at least until January, so this will have an impact on next year's agricultural questions."

A return to La Nina conditions for the prairies would bring in a colder, wetter winter.

"It's hard to say exactly even though we have a pretty good idea of where the jet stream sets itself up most of the time, the La Nina event and the jet stream would be the path that low-pressure systems will tend to take across the Canadian prairies during La Nina. Exactly where that's going to set itself up can change from period to period or week to week, so exactly where those low-pressure centres are going to go and therefore exactly who is going to get precipitation out of them is a little less clear."

Some frosts will likely start popping up later into the fall, likely well after harvest has wrapped up for farmers.

"Since it will be cooler, probably starting in the fall, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw maybe some kind of effect in the late fall, kind of showing up here, but as I mentioned, we don't really see climate impacts from La Nina in our part of the world in late summer or early fall, so I don't know that we would be talking about frost more than usual as La Nina conditions set themselves up."