Key January data may reshape corn soybeans and wheat prices

USDA Report Could Boost Farm Markets

On the weekly Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast with experts Farms.com Risk Management Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino and Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal, the team review recent important market developments during the week of January 5th to the 9th and focused on the upcoming USDA reports that could strongly influence crop and livestock prices.

Stock markets ended the week higher, while precious metals also gained as global tensions encouraged safe-haven buying. However, most attention was directed toward USDA crop and grain stock reports scheduled for release soon – the USDA WASDE Report is scheduled for release on Monday January 12th, 2026.

Analysts expect the USDA to report corn yields near 184 bushels per acre and soybean yields near 52.7 bushels per acre. Agostino raised concerns that government staffing limits and missed field surveys could lead to inflated yield estimates.

Farmers across the country have reported disease pressure, dry weather, and lower field performance, suggesting actual yields may be smaller than originally anticipated.

If the USDA lowers crop yields, corn and soybean ending stocks could fall sharply, advises Agostino. Corn prices may move above $4.50 per bushel, while soybeans could return back above $11 per bushel. Winter wheat seedings are also being closely watched. A reduction in wheat acres below 31 million (average guess is 32.4) could improve wheat market prices.

Corn export sales remain the strongest in ten years, adding support to corn demand. Soybean exports, however, are running at the weakest pace in a decade, creating concern over global competition. China remains an important buyer, and future trade activity could help improve soybean sales.

Cattle markets continue to show strength due to tight supplies and ongoing animal health concerns. Live and feeder cattle futures are trending higher, and new record prices are possible in the coming months from continued strong fundamentals.

Canola prices have also gained momentum due to heavy short covering by investment funds and the possibility of easing trade Canada/China restrictions. Meanwhile, South American crop production remains record large with no major red flag weather threats reported.

The experts encouraged farmers to follow USDA reports closely and consider long-term financial planning. They also underlined the importance of diversification and market awareness to manage price risk in uncertain global conditions.

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit things; Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.

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