In The Cattle Markets

By David Anderson

Is this the start of something big?

Is this the start of something, or is it just normal month-to-month gyrations in cattle feedlot placements and marketing? USDA released its latest Cattle on Feed  report on Friday, March 21, indicating some large, but not unexpected, swings compared to a year ago.

Placements in February 2025 were 17.8%, or 336,000 head, fewer than those of February 2024. It was the lowest placements for any month since June 2016 and the lowest for a February since 2015. The exceptionally high placements in 2024 meant that this year’s decline was going to look big. The number of cattle going through the CME feeder-cattle index during the month was down 39% compared to last year. Combined with fewer cattle from Mexico affecting Southern feedlots, the placements were lower. But placements were small enough to prompt some to think about whether this might be the beginning of placements indicating herd rebuilding, given that they were the fewest since the last herd rebuilding in 2015. It’s probably too early to tell. The data on the number of heifers on feed in the next report might give us some better evidence.

Feedlot marketings were 9% lower than those of February 2024. About half of the percentage point decline was due to last year being a leap year, so there was one less working day in the month this year. Daily average marketings account for the number of days, and it was 81,650 head in February compared to 85,380 head last year.

Combined marketings and placements leave cattle on feed 2.2% smaller than a year ago. That is certainly moving total supplies more in line with the smaller cow herd. Reduced marketings contributed to an increase in the number of cattle on feed longer than 120 and 90 days than last year. So, while the total number on feed is moving in the right direction, there are ample near-term supplies of fed cattle.