Oklahoma imports and exports goods in the agriculture industry, and economists say the tariffs' impact varies depending on the commodity and where it's going.
In 2024, Oklahoma shipped almost $2.4 billion in agricultural exports, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service. The state's top exports were cattle and wheat, which are also Oklahoma's top commodities.
Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, said regardless of other outcomes, the tariffs are already introducing uncertainty to the market.
"The uncertainty by itself is a negative factor and that's likely to continue for some time," Peel said.
Beef is not one product, and it goes to different places. Peel said it's important to consider what beef products are being imported, because consumers will pay those tariffs. Most of that meat is going into the ground beef market to supplement domestic supplies because of record level cattle inventory lows brought on by consistent drought.
"So the net impact on the cattle industry, it's more than likely negative because our exports are going to be impacted by tariffs, the imports will probably be impacted by tariffs, but that's actually a negative impact on the U.S. beef industry," Peel said. "So, it's negative, but exactly how negative, I can't tell you at this point."
He said it will depend on negotiations going forward, how long those negotiations will last and how the trade flows change.
Although cattle inventory lows have kept beef prices high at the grocery store, consumer demand has remained strong. But Peel said other factors, such as inflationary pressures, can indirectly impact what people can afford at the store.
For wheat, farmers raise varieties for different purposes, going to various places. Amy Hagerman, an OSU Extension agriculture and food policy specialist, said that could mean different impacts depending on how the wheat is used.
She said most wheat raised for pasta production goes outside of the country for processing and is then shipped back. Even though that pasta is a U.S.-sourced good, it would still be subject to a tariff.
"Wheat has had lower prices in the last few years — it was already under some pressure there," Hagerman said.
She said in addition to wheat farmers potentially seeing lower prices for their output, they are also going to face tariffs on imported items. This includes components of fertilizer and machinery farmers need that are sources outside of the nation.
"So wheat producers are an example of a segment of the agricultural sector that could get double squeezed by tariffs," Hagerman said.
Click here to see more...