Heat Coming at Wrong Time for Corn Belt

By John Baranick

It has been a relatively active and calm period in the Corn Belt during the last several weeks. Bouts of milder air temperatures and semi-frequent rainfall have led to overall decent rainfall during the last 30 days. There have been some winners and losers in the precipitation department, but overall it has been a nice turnaround from the dry conditions from late spring into early summer.

This pattern is about to change again, toward one of more heat and less-frequent precipitation for next week. How long this pattern lasts into August will be telling, and have a significant impact on corn and soybean production for the 2023 season.

A heat ridge over the South, which has given rise to record temperatures from the Southwest through Texas and heat advisories and warnings across the southern tier of the country all week will do some shifting. During the next few days, the ridge will align more into the western United States and even poke up into Western Canada and spread out into the middle of the U.S. early next week. Temperatures will soar above normal with many locations in the 90s across the Corn Belt and some 100-degree readings likely in areas from the Northern Plains down through Texas. Triple-digit readings may be more sporadic than models are forecasting at the moment, but the heat will be on for next week. There are questions on the extent of the heat, though. States west of the Mississippi River and across the Gulf Coast are likely to be intense, but just how far east through the Corn Belt those 90-degree readings will extend is still to be determined. Ohio and Michigan are least likely to see the extreme heat of farther west as temperatures should more likely be in the 80s Fahrenheit most of the week, but a few days approaching or exceeding 90 F will be possible. High afternoon temperatures will not be the only issue, but warm overnight lows will also be a concern. Morning lows in the 70s F as far north as Nebraska to the southern Great Lakes will not allow for much relief overnight.

Part of the question about the extent of the heat will be strength of the heat ridge and potential for precipitation. The northern rim is usually a good spot to produce clusters of thunderstorms or even some systems. With a trough in the Gulf of Alaska expected to send some energy through Canada, we should see at least two systems move through the Canadian Prairies. Whether or not that means widespread precipitation in that region is still in the air as well.