Headline Inflation Rate Ticks Higher in October

Canadian inflation ran hotter than expected in October, potentially jeopardizing another super-sized interest rate cut next month. 

Statistics Canada’s consumer price index rose 2% on a year-over-year basis last month, topping the 1.6% increase seen in September and slightly exceeding analyst and economist expectations for a 1.9% gain. It also marked the first time the annual inflation rate has ticked higher since May. 

Much of the October increase in the headline inflation rate was attributed to gasoline prices, which fell only 4% last month on a year-over-year basis versus the 10.7% fall seen in September. On a monthly basis, prices for gasoline were up 0.7% in October, following a 7.1% decline in September. 

Prices for food purchased from stores contributed to higher October inflation as well. Grocery prices were up 2.7% in October, topping the previous month’s 2.4% advance - the third consecutive month price growth for groceries outpaced headline inflation. The increase in grocery prices was led by fresh vegetables (+7.3%) as well as preserved fruit and fruit preparations (+7.6%). On the other hand, prices for fresh or frozen beef were up a more modest 7% in October compared to a 9.2% gain in September. 

Although the October inflation rate matched the Bank of Canada’s preferred target of 2%, the increase from last month is nevertheless seen as giving pause to the Bank in terms of announcing another big interest rate cut next month. 

The Bank cut its key overnight lending rate by 50 basis points last month, compared to the three previous reductions which were all by 25 basis points. Most economists still expect the Bank to trim rates further next month, although the size of the cut is now more uncertain.