Farm Credit Canada has raised its 2022-23 pricing expectations for most crops, with profitability looking ‘excellent’ for those farms able to achieve trend yields.
In an update this week, the federal agricultural lender raised its new-crop price forecasts for corn and soybeans to $325 and $695/tonne, respectively, up from $305 (ON) and $610 (ON) in May and the initial January outlook of $265 and $550. Canola is now forecast at $935/tonne (SK), compared to $920 in May and $845 in January, while spring wheat is seen at $450 (SK), up $65 from May and $75 above the January projection.
At $420 (AB), FCC’s new-crop barley price forecast is up from $355 in May and $340 in January, while durum, at $505 (SK), is up from $425 in May but still down from $550 in January.
New-crop lentil (Red, SK) and pea (Yellow, SK) prices are projected at $810 and $480/tonne, versus $725 and $435 in May and $880 and $535 in January.
Canola, spring wheat, and lentil profitability in Western Canada have all increased since the May update, FCC said, due to increased revenue potential from strong crop prices outpacing input price increases. In eastern Canada, margins for the three major crops (corn, wheat, and soybeans) remain strong but have eroded since May due mainly to input costs and lower prices for wheat.
In general, most ag commodities for 2022-23 are expected by FCC to have lower year-over-year prices, but still well above their five-year averages and are projected to remain there over the coming months.
Since its May update, FCC noted prairie farmers have dealt with significant weather challenges. The eastern prairies have had excess rainfall, slowing seeding and leaving some acres fallow. On the other hand, western Saskatchewan’s dryness has continued, which may limit yield potential, it said. Meanwhile, Alberta received above-average rains in June, which has improved its outlook.
Ontario was dry but has received much-needed rain over the past few days.
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