FCC Forecasts More Canola, Soybean Acres in 2024; Less Durum

Farm Credit Canada is projecting Canadian producers will seed more acres this year to some crops – including canola – and less to others, compared to Statistics Canada’s March acreage report. 

In a website post Wednesday, FCC forecast that canola acres will increase 1.3% this year, versus StatsCan’s estimate of a 3.1% decline. If accurate, the FCC forecast would put 2024 national canola seeded area at 22.36 million acres, potentially the highest since 22.81 million went into the ground in 2018. 

Although FCC acknowledged that its own and StatsCan’s projections are possible, the federal ag lender said the farmer survey for the StatsCan acreage report was conducted way back in December and January. Since then, crop prices have continued to decline, fertilizer prices have trended higher, drought has persisted in Western Canada, and crop insurance price levels have been released, “all of which may have changed producers’ minds,” it said. 

FCC said producers have also historically understated survey intentions for canola, noting that last year’s survey underestimated actual seeded acres by 500,000 acres. Furthermore, FCC suggested farmers may expect basis levels to improve, strengthening current lean profitability projections, as additional Prairie crush capacity comes online.   

As can be shown on the chart below, FCC is forecasting just a small bump in 2024 oat acres from the 2.52 million planted a year ago, compared to the 21.6% increase that was projected in the StatsCan acreage report.  

It also sees a slight decline in durum planted area from the 6.03 million acres planted in 2023 versus the 5.1% increase that StatsCan projected. Barley area is expected by FCC to increase this year, while StatsCan reported a 2.5% decrease from 7.32 million last year. 

The FCC estimates also flip the script on corn and soybeans, with producers now expected to trim corn acres and increase soybean area. In its March report, StatsCan suggested a 1.6% increase in corn acres from the 3.82 million planted in 2023, and a 0.9% fall in soybean area from 5.63 million. 

Overall, FCC said it expects Canadian farmers will have minimal acreage changes compared to last year as most stick to their typical rotations of corn-soybeans in the east and canola-wheat in the west. Any acreage surprises would be predominantly in pulses, it added. 

To that end, FCC is projecting year-over-year increases of 0.3% and 3.3%, respectively, in dry pea and lentil planted area in 2024, versus the 2.4% and 4.4% gains expected by StatsCan. However, FCC cautioned pea acreage could expand more than projected “given strong price signals, and the relatively low fertilizer costs associated with growing the crop and its resilience amid drought conditions.”