Early USDA Supply-Demand Estimates Set Stage for 2025-26

Early new-crop supply-demand estimates released by the USDA on Thursday provided no major shocks, with American producers expected to plant more corn and wheat but fewer soybeans. 

Meanwhile, production outlooks for the big three crops were mixed versus 2024, with season-average prices all forecast to decline modestly. 

Projections this morning from the government’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum put 2025 US corn planted area at 94 million acres, up 3.4 million or 3.7% from a year earlier, with production forecast to rise 5% to 15.585 billion bu. Soybean area was estimated at 84 million acres, down 3.1 million or 3.8% on the year. But expectations for a slightly better soy yield this year compared to 2024 lifted estimated new-crop soy production fractionally above a year ago to 4.37 billion bu. 

Total wheat area was estimated by the USDA at 47 million acres, an increase of 900,000 or about 2% from the previous year. But with yield and harvested area expectations down from a year ago, the USDA projected a 2% decline in all wheat output to 1.926 billion bu.  

Combined spring and durum wheat plantings for 2025-26 are projected higher than last year with more area available in the Northern Plains with an expected reduction in soybean plantings although higher expected net returns for corn could limit the potential increase, the USDA said. The USDA’s winter wheat seedings report in January estimated US winter wheat planted area for harvest this year at 34.1 million acres, up 2% from 2024.