Early March Snow Improves Saskatchewan Runoff Forecast

Heavy snowfall earlier this month has improved the Saskatchewan spring runoff forecast from February. 

Released Tuesday, the provincial Water Security Agency’s (WSA) spring runoff forecast now suggests a near normal runoff is expected in the Saskatoon area and west toward Biggar, as well as in the eastern portions of the grain belt along the Manitoba border. That is a significant change from the agency’s Feb. 22 preliminary runoff report, which indicated a below to well below normal runoff for the entire province.  

(The contrasting two runoff forecast maps can be seen below). 

Storms the first weekend of March brought up to 40 cm of snow to much of southern and central Saskatchewan, helping to offer at least some relief from ongoing dry conditions. However, Minister Responsible for Water Security Agency David Marit warned the precipitation won’t completely fix things. As of March 4, snowpack still only generally ranged from below to well-below normal across the province. 

“Although, the recent snowfall will help our situation and our producers this spring, we as a government will still be prepared to help those areas with dry conditions,” Marit said. “More moisture will be needed as temperatures continue to stay above zero.” 

The spring runoff depends on various factors, including fall soil moisture, snowpack water content, and how quickly it melts.  

Over the winter, WSA focused on retaining water supplies that have helped keep water levels at most major reservoirs at or above normal levels for this time of year. However, in some southern areas, including the Big Stick and the south-central area of the province, persistent drier than normal conditions may lead to drier than normal conditions and localized water supply shortages this spring. 

Although drier conditions persist, most major water supply reservoirs in southern Saskatchewan are at or above normal levels. On the other hand, reservoirs such as Avonlea and some in the southwest (e.g., Altawan and Cypress) may experience surface water supply concerns due to the depleted snowpack.