Dry Pea Stocks Tighten on Larger 2023-24 Export Forecast

Agriculture Canada has lowered its already tight 2023-24 dry pea ending stocks estimate due to heavier export demand. 

In updated monthly supply-demand estimates released last week, Ag Canada forecast dry pea ending stocks for the current marketing year at just 175,000 tonnes. That is down from the previous month’s forecast of 210,000 and is now roughly 65% below last year’s stocks of almost 500,000 tonnes.  

If accurate, it would be the tightest dry pea ending stocks since 2015-16 when ending stocks slipped to 174,000 tonnes. 

This month’s lower ending stocks estimate is due to a higher export forecast, which was revised up 100,000 tonnes to 2.5 million, near last year’s 2.563 million. However, at least some of the higher export projection was offset by lower domestic use, which fell to 511,000 tonnes from 576,000 in March. 

In its accompanying commentary, Ag Canada said monthly exports of dry peas between August and February have been lower than the five-year average for every month, except December, January, and February. The rise in demand in those months can be attributed to tariff-free exports to India, it said. 

Ag Canada also tightened its 2024-25 dry pea ending stocks forecast from last month, dropping it 50,000 tonnes to 190,000. 

In addition to the smaller carryin from 2023-24, changes to the 2024-25 dry pea supply-demand picture also included a 100,000-tonne increase in the export forecast to 2.5 million, as well as an 85,000-tonne reduction in expected domestic use to 515,000. 

Ag Canada left its 2023-24 dry pea average price forecast unchanged from March at $460/tonne, but raised the 2024-25 projection by $25 to $400.