Dec. 31 Canola Stocks Down on Strong Exports

Last year’s smaller crop and a breakneck export pace have led to a sharp drawdown in national canola stockpiles. 

A Statistics Canada grain stocks report on Friday pegged total Canadian canola stocks as of Dec. 31 at 11.382 million tonnes, down 19.2% from a year earlier. Excluding the 2021 drought year when stocks dropped to 9.338 million tonnes, it was the lowest Dec. 31 canola stocks level since 2012 at just over 8 million. 

With a crop of 17.845 million tonnes – down 7% from the previous year – and a total 2024-25 canola supply of an estimated 20.692 million, the Dec. 31 stocks number infers Aug. 1 –Dec. 31 canola disappearance of 9.31 million tonnes, more than 2 million or 28.6% higher than the same period a year earlier. It also suggests canola usage will need to dramatically slow between now and the rest of the crop year to maintain a pipeline supply. For the 2023-24 crop year, canola usage between Dec. 31 and July 31 amounted to 11.3 million tonnes, roughly 2 million more than is now on hand for 2024-25. 

According to StatsCan, total commercial stocks of canola as of Dec. 31 were actually up 28.3% from a year ago at 1.497 million tonnes. On the other hand, on-farm stocks were down 23.5% at 9.885 million. 

StatsCan said exports of canola reached their highest level for the period since 2020, rising 80.8% year over year to 4.4 million tonnes as of December 31, 2024. This increase was possibly attributable to “favourable prices and concerns over potential future trade barriers,” the federal agency said. 

US President Donald Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on imports of Canadian goods – a possibility that has now been delayed until March – while China, the largest buyer of Canadian canola seed, last year announced it was launching an anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola. The outcome of that investigation remains unknown at this point.  

Industrial use of canola, mainly for crushing, rose to record levels for the second consecutive year, up 7.5% to 4.9 million tonnes, as the sector continued to expand to meet demand for renewable energy. 

In the largest production province of Saskatchewan, on-farm canola stocks as of Dec. 31 were reported at 5.563 million tonnes, down nearly 21% from the previous year. Alberta on-farm stocks were down 27.8% at 2.681 million tonnes, while Manitoba on-farm stocks were 24% lower at 1.562 million. 

Data on stocks of principal field crops held on farms come from the December Farm Survey of about 8,200 Canadian farmers conducted from December 13, 2024, to January 17, 2025. Data on commercial stocks of western major crops originate from the Canadian Grain Commission.