CN Releases 2024-25 Grain Plan as Possible Labour Disruption Looms

CN Rail released its 2024-25 Grain Plan on Wednesday, with the company projecting annual carload movement of grain and grain products between 28.5 million and 31 million tonnes. 

The forecast for the upcoming crop year – which does not include grain shipped via container direct from Western Canada – compares with the 2023-24 estimate of 29 million tonnes and the 2022-23 total of just over 28.1 million tonnes. 

“We are confident that we have the right approach and resources in place to move this year’s Canadian grain crop efficiently,” Tracy Robinson, President and Chief Executive Officer, CN, said in a release. “We continue to lean into our scheduled railroading model and making sure that our ongoing capital investments position us for success again this year.”  

However, the Grain Plan noted CN remains concerned about the negative supply chain capacity consequences of federal labour regulations, extended interswitching, and continued rain delays in loading grain vessels at the Port of Vancouver. Another major wildcard remains the threat of potential labour disruption. 

More than 9,000 workers at Canada’s two national railways CN and CPKC were originally set to be in a possible strike or lockout position as of May 22. However, prior to the deadline the federal government formally asked the Canada Industrial Relations Board to weigh in on what commodities are considered essential and must continue to move during a work stoppage. As part of its review, the CIRB accepted final submissions from the two railways, the union, and other organizations on June 14, but a final ruling is not expected until Aug. 9. And since no strike or lockout can occur prior to the board’s ruling, the impasse between the union and the railways remains in a holding pattern.  

CPKC CEO Keith Creel said earlier this week he expects a labour disruption could occur during the latter half of August,  

The CN Grain Plan is based on consultation with, and input from, key stakeholders, including the CN Agricultural Advisory Council – a group of western Canadian farmers and industry leaders. The plan assesses and describes in detail CN’s ability to move anticipated levels of grain during the upcoming crop year. It also outlines specific steps CN is taking to ensure it has the capacity to move grain “safely and efficiently on behalf of farmers, customers, and supply chain partners.”