Cattle Markets React to Policy Uncertainty on Beef and Cattle Imports

By James Mitchell and Dr. Kenny Burdine et.al

Feeder and Live Cattle futures have fallen sharply over the past 12 days. The CME December Live Cattle futures contract closed at $247.88 per cwt on October 16 but is trading today (October 27th) near $224 per cwt. The CME November Feeder Cattle futures contract closed at $380.95 per cwt on October 16 and is now trading below $339 per cwt. This period has included multiple limit-down days in the futures market. The goal of this article is to provide context for some of the key questions circulating during this market swing. We certainly don’t claim to have definitive answers as the situation remains fluid and will continue to evolve.

Argentina Beef Imports
The market shock began on October 16, following President Trump’s suggestion that there was a plan to lower beef prices. As more information emerged, it appeared that the proposal centered on increasing beef imports from Argentina. Specifically, the plan would expand the Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) from 20,000 metric tons to 80,000 metric tons for Argentina beef, effectively quadrupling the volume of Argentina beef that could enter the U.S. market. Understandably, this announcement has caused considerable concern among market participants.

Could Higher Imports from Argentina Impact Beef Prices?
The short answer is: likely very little. The U.S. is already importing larger-than-normal volumes of beef due to low domestic production and historically low cattle numbers. Year to date through July, beef imports totaled 3.4 billion pounds, up 30% from the same period last year. The September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) forecast 2025 U.S. beef imports at 5.4 billion pounds, or about 18.4% of total U.S. beef disappearance. The proposed TRQ increase for Argentina an additional 60,000 metric tons would account for less than 1% of total disappearance, even if fully utilized.

It is also important to recognize that “beef” is not a single product but a diverse portfolio of products serving different market segments. The U.S. imports primarily lean manufacturing beef used in ground beef production, while the domestic industry produces a larger share of grain-fed, high-quality cuts. As a result, imports tend to supplement the domestic ground beef market rather than directly compete in the U.S. grain-fed beef market. Both the volume and composition of imports are critical for assessing their impact on domestic beef prices and it’s hard to see how either would drastically change overall volume or import composition in the United States.

Live Cattle Imports
Markets also had to react to news about a potential meeting this week between the U.S. and Mexico to discuss a possible reopening of the southern border to live cattle imports. The U.S.-Mexico border was first closed to live animal trade on November 2024 following a detection of New World Screwworm in Mexico and remains closed today. Between February and May 2025, when the border was briefly open, weekly feeder cattle imports from Mexico averaged 14,900 head—about 43% lower than the 2020-2024 weekly average.

If a hypothetical agreement were reached to reopen the border, it would likely occur gradually and involve limited entry. In addition, many of the cattle that would have been exported while the border was closed have already entered alternative marketing channels. Therefore, there is little evidence of a significant backlog of Mexican cattle awaiting import. Even if some inventories were available, a phased reopening would somewhat limit any increase in supply that could disrupt U.S. cattle markets.