Canola Exports Running on Fumes

Canadian canola exports are close to running dry as domestic supplies tighten further.

Canadian Grain Commission data shows just 800 tonnes of canola were shipped in week 34 of the 2021-22 marketing year, down sharply from just over 128,000 the previous week. It was by far a new marketing year low, handily beating out the previous low of 6,200 tonnes in week three. The marketing year high was hit in week 15 at 304,900 tonnes.

“Everybody I talked to fully expected that by the time we got to April, there wasn’t going to be much left. That turned out to be true,” said Quorum Corp. president Mark Hemmes. Edmonton-based Quorum is an independent third party that tracks grain movement across Canada, monitoring the system’s efficiency and reliability.

Canola exports were fairly decent in September and October 2021, but by February of this year there was little left to move out, Hemmes said, adding he expects most the remaining canola supply to be earmarked for the domestic crush.

In the wake of last year’s summer drought that slashed Canadian production by about one-third, Agriculture Canada is projecting total 2021-22 canola exports at just 5.4 million tonnes, down by nearly half from the 10.57 million that was shipped the previous season. The domestic crush is estimated by Ag Canada at 8.5 million tonnes, a more modest 18% decline from a year earlier.

Like exports, the crush pace actually also held up relatively well through the first few months of the 2021-22 crop year but has now slowed to near expectations. Statistics Canada reported late last month domestic processors crushed 629,153 tonnes of canola in February, down from 651,282 in January and more than 168,000 tonnes or 21% below the same month a year earlier.