Canola Ending Stocks Projected at Lowest Since 1998

Agriculture Canada is projecting 2021-22 Canadian canola ending stocks to fall to the lowest in nearly a quarter century.

In updated supply-demand estimates released Friday, Ag Canada lowered its estimate of canola ending stocks for the current marketing year to just 450,000 tonnes. That is down 50,000 from the government’s January forecast and would be the lowest since 1998, when ending stocks dwindled to just 363,000 tonnes.

This month’s supply-demand update reflects the Statistics Canada grain stocks report that was released Feb. 8. That report pegged total national canola stockpiles as of Dec. 31 at just 7.561 million tonnes, down more than 43% from a year earlier and the lowest since 2007 in the wake of last summer’s Prairie drought that slashed production by 37.5%.

Ag Canada left its 2021-22 canola crush and export numbers unchanged from January at 8.5 million and 5.4 million tonnes, respectively. However, it increased its feed, waste and dockage estimate slightly, up to 66,000 tonnes from 61,000 in January, while the carryin from the 2020-21 marketing year was reduced to 1.722 million tonnes from 1.767 million.

The cut in the 2021-22 canola ending stocks estimate was carried into the forecast for 2022-23, with projected new-crop ending stocks reduced an identical 50,000 tonnes from last month to 650,000. The old-crop season average price estimate was steady from January at $1,050/tonne, while the new-crop price was raised $50 to $850.

In other changes, Ag Canada raised its 2021-22 all wheat ending stocks forecast to 4 million tonnes from 3.45 million in January (versus 5.66 million in 2020-21), mainly due to a downgrade in the wheat (excl durum) export forecast, which fell 1 million tonnes from January to 13 million. Exports were revised down on “progressively sluggish movement now tracking 42% less than last year’s levels,” Ag Canada said.

Durum ending stocks for 2021-22 actually ticked higher - up 50,000 tonnes from January to 500,000 due to a reduction in expected domestic use - but that remains well down from 753,000 the previous year.

Estimated oat and barley stocks for 2021-22 were left unchanged from January at 200,000 and 300,000 tonnes, respectively, down from 657,000 and 711,000 a year earlier.