Canadian Winters Bearing Brunt of Climate Change

The best time to see and experience of the impacts of climate change in Canada? It’s winter, hands down. 

Especially this winter. 

As part of a presentation at the Ontario Agricultural Conference last month, Ryan Smith, climatologist with the Canadian Centre for Climate Services, outlined several observed changes in the weather over the past 100 years, not the least of which has been warmer temperatures that have manifested more so in the winter than any other season. 

And while precipitation has generally increased across the country over the past century, the winter season is becoming drier and drier. The result, Smith said, is a notable decrease in the duration of the annual snowy season, along with a decline in snow depth. 

Among the worst hit parts of the country in terms of rising temperatures and declining winter precipitation has been Alberta, where producers have now experienced multiple years of drought and the provincial government is already warning on water supply issues for 2024. More recently, temperatures in parts of Western Canada soared into the 20s degrees C in some locations following a bout of extreme cold. 

“We’re definitely seeing some incredible stuff out west,” Smith said. 

The rest of Western Canada is also experiencing drier winters, while B.C. and the Yukon are also warming disproportionately. Winter temperatures are rising while snowfall declines in Ontario as well, although less dramatically than in the Prairies and the more northern regions of the country. 

Overall, Smith said Canada is warming at the double the global rate, with this country’s northern areas warming at roughly triple the rate. The impacts have included such calamities as floods, heatwaves, wildfires, and severe storms.  

In fact, Smith said the new normal for yearly insured catastrophic losses in Canada is now around $2 billion. This past year, national insured damage from severe weather was actually higher than that, exceeding $3 billion for the second straight year. 

Looking ahead, Smith said the worst-case climate change scenario paints a sobering picture. 

Using Ridgetown, ON as example, he said the town in the southwestern part of the province could see an additional 71 days per year of temperatures over 30 degrees C by the end of the century. The number of frost-free days could increase by close to 70 days, and days featuring temperatures below –15 degrees C are likely to all but disappear. 

For a city like Winnipeg, Smith said the climate by the end of the century could more closely resemble that of northern Texas. 

“Those are quite striking projections,” Smith said.