Canadian oat and barley production will soar in 2019, the result of strong 2018-19 prices and the resulting big increase in spring plantings.
According to Statistics Canada’s first 2019 production report on Wednesday, nationwide barley production will amount to 9.64 million tonnes, more than 15% above the 2018 crop of 8.37 million and easily the largest since farmers harvested 10.28 million tonnes in 2013. At 3.95 million tonnes, projected national oat production is also up about 15% from last year and the biggest since 4.27 million in 2008.
Both estimates came in on the high side of pre-report trade guesses.
The expected increase in barley output is driven higher not only by a larger harvested area, but a higher average yield as well. The average barley yield is seen up 2.2% from last year to 66.4 bu/acre, while harvested area is forecast at 6.67 million acres, an increase of almost 13% from 2018 and the highest since 2012.
For oats, harvested area is estimated up 5.2% to 2.86 million acres from 2018, while yields are expected to be stable at 89.6 bu/acre.
In Saskatchewan, barley output is forecast at 3.86 million tonnes, up about 400,000 tonnes from a year earlier with the average yield declining to 61.1 bu/acre from 62.7 bu. Oat production in the province is anticipated at 1.95 million tonnes versus 1.68 million in 2018, with the average yield falling to 87.7 bu/acre from 90.8 bu.
This year’s Alberta barley crop is pegged at 4.8 million tonnes, way up from 3.99 million in 2018. At 70.1 bu/acre, the average expected Alberta barley yield is up from 66.8 bu in 2018. Oat output in the province is estimated at 851,000 tonnes, compared to 700,100 last year, with the average yield increasing to 90.8 bu/acre from 88.7 bu.
The Manitoba barley crop is seen up about 19,000 tonnes from 2018 to 520,100, with the average yield up to 79.3 bu/acre from 75.3 bu. Oat production is forecast at 776,900 tonnes, versus 709,000 a year earlier. At 106.6 bu/acre, the average expected Manitoba oat yield is up from 103.2 bu a year ago.
Source : Syngenta