Canadian 2023-24 All Wheat Stocks Tighter

Canadian all wheat stocks were considerably tighter at the end of the 2023-24 crop year. 

Monday’s Statistics Canada grain stocks report showed total national all wheat stocks as of July 31 at 4.583 million tonnes, 18.5% below the previous year’s 5.625 million but still up from 4.169 million on July 31, 2022. 

The entire year-over-year decline was due to wheat (excl durum), with ending stocks tumbling 20.7% to 4.007 million tonnes. On the other hand, durum stocks as of July 31 inched up 0.3% from last year to 576,000 tonnes, still down from 586,000 tonnes two years earlier. 

In its Aug. 20 supply-demand update, Agriculture Canada had forecast 2023-24 Canadian all wheat ending stocks at just 2.325 million tonnes, although that projection was based on 2023 Canadian production of 31.954 million tonnes. In its Aug. 28 crop production report, Statistics Canada retroactively revised up last year’s crop to 32.946 million tonnes, helping to bolster ending stocks. 

(The 2022 all wheat crop was revised higher as well, up to 34.806 million tonnes from the earlier estimate of 34.335 million. 

Ag Canada estimated 2023-24 durum ending stocks at just 325,000 tonnes in its August supply-demand. The Aug. 28 crop production report also revised the 2023 durum crop higher, although only slightly, to 4.087 million. 

All wheat commercial stocks as of July 31 were up 39.7% on the year to 3.8 million tonnes while on-farm stocks fell a hefty 72.7% to 796,000 tonnes. 

Deliveries of wheat off farm rose 1.4% year-over-year to 31.9 million tonnes as of July 31. Exports of wheat fell 1.2% to 25.2 million tonnes but remained above the five-year average for the period, StatsCan said. 

Data on stocks of principal field crops held on farms on July 31, 2024, come from the June Field Crop Survey, which surveyed approximately 25,000 Canadian farmers from May 15 to June 12, 2024. Data on commercial stocks of western major crops originate from the Canadian Grain Commission.