U.S. broiler meat production is expected to total 37.5 billion pounds in 2013, up 2.5 percent from 2012, with the growth spread over the year as processors expand production in response to generally better conditions. The increase in broiler meat production is expected to come from both a greater number of birds slaughtered and a small increase in average bird weights. There are two primary factors that will likely influence expanded broiler meat production in 2013. The first is the degree to which processors feel demand will reflect expansion in the general economy. The second factor is what integrators expect for changes to corn and soybean prices. At the present time corn prices for the marketing year are forecast to average $4.20-$5.00 per bushel in 2012/13, down from $5.95-$6.25 per bushel a year earlier. This decline will be mitigated by relatively high prices for soybean meal. Prices for 48 percent protein soybean meal are forecast at $350-$365 per ton in 2012/13, compared to $360 per ton the previous year.
Broiler meat production in first-quarter 2012 totaled 9.1 billion pounds, a 2.2 percent decline from the same period in 2011. The number of broilers slaughtered fell by 2.6 percent to 2.1 billion birds. Partially offsetting this decline in birds slaughtered was a small (0.6 percent) gain in the average weight of birds at slaughter to 5.83 pounds. With the number of chicks placed for growout down about 4 percent from the previous year, the number of broilers slaughtered would normally be expected to be down more, but due to the Leap Year first-quarter 2012 had an additional processing day compared with first-quarter 2011.
The broiler meat production forecast for second-quarter 2012 is 9.1 billion pounds, down 4.3 percent from a year earlier. Broiler production is expected to be below the previous year until fourth-quarter 2012 when processors are expected to respond to a gradually strengthening economy and lower grain prices.
Over the last 5 weeks, (April 7 through May 5), the number of chicks being placed for growout has averaged 3.9 percent lower than in the same period in 2011. In addition, the number of eggs placed in incubators has been down 4.4 percent. These estimates point toward continued declines in broiler meat production in second-quarter 2012 and into the third-quarter. Broiler cold storage stocks totaled 549 million pounds at the end of first-quarter 2012, 17 percent below first-quarter 2011. The decline in cold storage holdings extended to most of the categories in the report. Most of the decrease is attributable to the lower broiler meat production in the first quarter. With broiler meat production forecast lower than the previous year through the first three quarters of 2012, cold storage of broiler products is also expected to be below the previous year through the same period. Cold storage is expected to rise in fourth-quarter 2012 as production rises. Much of the decline at the end of the first quarter is attributable to lower holdings of leg quarters and wings, down 27 percent and 52 percent from a year earlier. Some of the decline, especially for leg quarters, is the result of strong exports during first-quarter 2012. The 12-city wholesale price for whole broilers is expected to average 86 to 89 cents per pound in 2012, up from 79 cents per pound the previous year as lower