The Bank of Montreal has published an in-depth analysis of nine key trends. Here’s a topline of several economic indicators and what to expect in 2025.
The world economy is holding up. Economic growth in the U.S. has continued to exceed expectations, allaying earlier fears about the possibility of a Fed-induced recession. Brisk growth south of the border is acting as a crucial pillar of support for the global economy, given the loss of momentum in Japan, Europe, Canada and even China. Interest rates are still relatively high in most countries, but global growth appears on track to accelerate slightly in 2025 as long as geopolitical and trade risks don’t spiral.
The low-flying loonie. The weak Canadian dollar is acting as a broad support for domestic agricultural prices, which would likely be around 10 per cent lower under a more neutral exchange rate. The flip side, however, is that imported inputs are also costlier.
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