Betting on Herd Expansion

By Garth Ruff

As I visit with cattle producers this summer, the conversation that continues to be in the back of everyone’s mind is the topic of herd expansion. Should we plan on keeping additional heifers this fall? There will be some jockeying for position as to who decides to add cow numbers. As it relates to heifer marketing this fall, Kenny Rogers’ song the gambler comes to mind, “You got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them.”

This isn’t a yes or no answer as there are several factors in play, economics, feed availability and quality, and individual herd dynamics.

Economics: Thus far looking at USDA reports there is no sign of herd expansion at this point. High fed cattle prices have incentivized the selling of heifers as feeder cattle prices remain historically strong. When expansion does happen the supply for feeders will become tighter, driving demand for a limited cattle supply. High feeder prices make it tempting not to retain any more heifers than the minimum needed based on culling rate.

One strategy that may be worth considering, if feed is available, is to develop more replacement females than needed, especially if they are from a herd with proven genetics. Keep the females needed and then market the rest as replacements to other herds.

Here in Ohio in 2024, we sold 56 bred heifers for $2,961 per head and young bred cows for over $2,800 per head at the OCA Replacement Female Sale. As the cow-calf sector has seen record profit margins there has been interest in genetic improvement from the female side.

Given some reports from the west combined with feeder cattle prices, I have to think last year’s bred heifers were a bargain compared to what they should be worth now. Recent market commentary from Billings, Montana indicated that feeders are outbidding ranchers for heifers at auction in order to keep feedyard pens full as possible.