Barley Output Up Sharply from September; Oats Higher

Statistics Canada has raised its 2023 Canadian oat and barley production estimates from earlier expectations, with barley seeing a particularly sharp increase. 

The federal agency’s final crop production report for the 2023 season on Monday pegged this year’s national barley crop at 8.89 million tonnes, up more than 1 million from the September forecast of just 7.84 million but still 10.9% below a year earlier. Meanwhile, the oat crop is now estimated at 2.63 million tonnes. That is up from 2.43 million in September but remains almost 50% below a year earlier and the lowest output in more than 10 years due to a steep decline in planted and harvested area. 

At 6.66 million acres, barley harvested area saw a minor increase from 6.57 million in September but the average national yield jumped to 61.3 bu/acre from 54.8 bu – although still almost 13% below last year’s 70.4 bu average. Oat harvested area was little changed from September at 2.03 million acres, while the average yield was bumped up to 84.1 bu/acre from 77.1 bu but remains down from last year’s 97.8 bu. 

Today’s barley estimate landed above the high end of pre-report trade guesses that ranged from 8 million to 8.8 million tonnes. Trade guesses for the oat crop ranged from 2.6 million to 2.7 million tonnes. 

This year’s Alberta barley crop is estimated at 4.72 million tonnes, up from 4.45 million in September but down 12.4% from 2022. The average yield in the province, at 62.9 bu/acre, is up from the earlier estimate of 61 but well below 75.9 bu a year ago. 

In the No. 1 oat production province of Saskatchewan, this year crop is estimated at 1.034 million tonnes, up just modestly from 1 million in September and down sharply from 2.56 million in 2022. The average provincial yield, at 83.4 bu/acre, compares to 73.6 bu in September and 98.6 bu last year.