The Alberta government has nudged most of its 2021 yield estimates for major crops higher from earlier in the month, although they generally remain below the Statistics Canada forecasts released Sept. 14.
In its regular weekly crop report Friday, the Alberta government pegged this year’s average spring yield in the province at 31.3 bu/acre, That is up from the province’s Sept. 7 estimate of 30.4 bu but still below the StatsCan’s September estimate of 35 bu. Similarly, the province put the average canola yield at 26.9 bu/acre, versus its Sept. 7 estimate of 26.1 bu and StatsCan’s 28.7 bu.
At 41.6 bu/acre, the province’s latest barley estimate is up from 40.2 bu earlier this month but a full 8 bu below the StatsCan projection. On the other hand, the province’s oat yield estimate of 51.2 bu/acre is up from 50.1 bu in early September and above the StatsCan projection for Alberta of 50.9 bu/acre.
The average Alberta pea yield is now estimated by the province at 24.9 bu/acre, compared to 25.6 bu earlier in the month and the StatsCan estimate of 25.7 bu.
Meanwhile, the Alberta harvest is progressing well, despite some cool, wet weather that caused varying degrees of delay this past week. Even with the delays, producers now have 78% of the major crops in the bin, an 18-point increase over last week. The harvest is now 31 points ahead of last year’s progress and 37 points ahead of the five-year average.
With over three quarters of the crop now harvested, the report said grades for the major crops are coming in close to the five-year averages (shown in brackets):
Spring wheat has 92% (92%) of production at 1 CW and 2 CW;
barley at 29% (32%) malt and 57% (56%) 1 CW;
oats are 69% (70%) 1 CW and 2 CW;
canola is 90% (90%) 1 CAN with peas being 89% (82%) 1 CAN and 2 CAN.
Durum is also looking good with 85% (83%) of production being reported as being 1 CW or 2 CW.
Region One: South (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)
• Harvest is nearing completion with 85 per cent in the bin, well ahead of the five-year average of 75 per cent harvested. Six per cent is currently in the swath. Sugar beets are 10 per cent and dry beans are 50 per cent done.
• The dryland yield index dipped slightly to 45 per cent from 47 per cent two weeks ago. Dryland yield estimates (irrigated in brackets) are currently 18 (71) bushels per acre on spring wheat, 16 (75) on durum, 21 (91) on barley with 26 (79) on oats. Canola estimates are 16 (55) bushels to the acre with peas at 19 (47).
• Quality is very good despite the difficult growing season: 89 per cent of spring wheat and 83 per cent of durum are in the top two grades with 79 per cent of barley grading 1 CW or Malt and 90 per cent of oats in the top two grades. 73 per cent of canola is grading 1 CAN with 97 per cent of field peas in the top two grades.
• Fall seeded crop condition is estimated as 64 per cent good or excellent.
• Pasture ratings are 61 per cent poor, 29 per cent fair and 10 per cent good. Cattle have been turned into stubble. • Surface soil moisture ratings (sub-surface in brackets) are 31 (59) per cent poor, 39 (31) per cent fair, 29 (10) per cent good and 1 (0) per cent excellent.
Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)
• Harvest is nearing completion with 85 per cent in the bin, significantly ahead of the five-year average of 38 per cent harvested. Ten per cent is currently in the swath.
• The dryland yield index rose slightly to 61 per cent from 59 per cent two weeks ago. Dryland yield estimates (irrigated in brackets) are currently 31 (70) bushels per acre on spring wheat, 10 on durum, 56 (95) on barley with 53 on oats. Canola estimates are 29 (60) bushels to the acre with peas at 25.
• Quality is very good despite the difficult growing season: 90 per cent of spring wheat and 96 per cent of durum is in the top two grades with 91 per cent of barley grading 1 CW or Malt and 84 per cent of oats in the top two grades. 90 per cent of canola is grading 1 CAN with 88 per cent of field peas in the top two grades.
• Fall seeded crop condition is estimated as 63 per cent good or excellent.
• Pasture ratings are 30 per cent poor, 28 per cent fair, 41 per cent good and 1 per cent excellent.
• Surface soil moisture ratings (sub-surface in brackets) are 18 (29) per cent poor, 25 (28) per cent fair, 54 (38) per cent good and 3 (5) per cent excellent.
Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)
• Harvest is nearing completion with 84 per cent in the bin, significantly ahead of the five-year average of 27 per cent harvested. Seven per cent is currently in the swath.
• The dryland yield index rose to 66 per cent from 61 per cent two weeks ago. Dryland yield estimates are 35 bushels per acre on spring wheat, 46 on barley with 52 on oats. Canola estimates are 28 bushels to the acre with peas at 29.
• Quality is very good despite the difficult growing season: 94 per cent of spring wheat is in the top two grades with 86 per cent of barley grading 1 CW or Malt and 56 per cent of oats in the top two grades. 94 per cent of canola is grading 1 CAN with 76 per cent of field peas in the top two grades.
• Fall seeded crop condition is estimated as 66 per cent good with zero excellent.
• Pasture ratings are 84 per cent poor, 11 per cent fair and 5 per cent good.
• Surface soil moisture ratings (sub-surface in brackets) are 46 (43) per cent poor, 20 (24) per cent fair, 31 (31) per cent good and 3 (2) per cent excellent.
Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)
• Harvest is advancing nicely with 64 per cent in the bin, significantly ahead of the five-year average of 18 per cent harvested. 18 per cent is currently in the swath.
• The dryland yield index rose to 78 per cent from 76 per cent two weeks ago. Dryland yield estimates are 44 bushels per acre on spring wheat, 50 on barley with 53 on oats. Canola estimates are 35 bushels to the acre with peas at 29.
• Quality is very good despite difficult growing season: 97 per cent of spring wheat is in the top two grades with 86 per cent of barley grading 1 CW or Malt and 79 per cent of oats in the top two grades. 89 per cent of canola is grading 1 CAN with 92 per cent of field peas in the top two grades.
• Fall seeded crop condition is estimated as 60 per cent good with zero excellent.
• Pasture ratings are 33 per cent poor, 26 per cent fair and 41 per cent good.
• Surface soil moisture ratings (sub-surface in brackets) are 12 (12) per cent poor, 36 (32) per cent fair, 46 (44) per cent good and 6 (12) per cent excellent.
Region Five: Peace (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)
• Harvest is past the halfway point with 57 per cent in the bin, significantly ahead of the five-year average of 19 per cent harvested. 14 per cent is currently in the swath.
• The dryland yield index dipped one point to 69 per cent from two weeks ago. Dryland yield estimates are 33 bushels per acre on spring wheat, 37 on barley with 50 on oats. Canola estimates are 26 bushels to the acre with peas at 29.
• Quality is quite good despite difficult growing season: 95 per cent of spring wheat is in the top two grades with 88 per cent of barley grading 1 CW but only 8 per cent reaching Malt. Oats have 53 per cent grading in the top two grades, 100 per cent of canola is grading 1 CAN with 87 per cent of field peas grading 2 CAN but zero grading 1 CAN.
• Pasture ratings are 59 per cent poor, 32 per cent fair, 8 per cent good and 1 per cent excellent.
• Surface soil moisture ratings (sub-surface in brackets) are 39 (37) per cent poor, 38 (41) per cent fair, 22 (21) per cent good and 1 (1) per cent excellent.
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