Ag Economists Forecast Positive Long-Term Farm Growth

In the ever-changing landscape of agriculture, ag economists find reason for hope amidst turbulent times. The July edition of the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor reveals that while weather extremes and commodity market fluctuations remain the key short-term concerns, a more favorable long-term perspective is taking root.

A study, conducted jointly by the University of Missouri and Farm Journal, solicited opinions from close to 60 US-based specialists in the fields of grains, livestock, and policy.

Economists indicate that the agriculture sector faces a significant wildcard over the next year with geopolitical risks tied to China and the war in Ukraine. Nonetheless, there are several positive developments that could shape the future of U.S. agriculture, such as productivity and efficiency gains, a robust farm economy, shifts in interest rates, and expanding opportunities for renewable fuels. Additionally, the size of the American cattle market and meat exports could be crucial.

Despite expectations of declining net income for two consecutive years, the survey shows a spark of optimism. The long-term view remains hopeful, even though the July Monthly Monitor forecasts net farm income to dip to $132.8 billion in 2023, below the record set in 2022.

Crop yields and prices are also in focus, with economists anticipating a drop in forecasted corn and soybean prices and expressing concerns about geopolitical tensions impacting global crop production.

Livestock economists are keeping a close eye on feed costs and their impact on the livestock sector, as well as fluctuations in meat demand both domestically and internationally. The survey reveals that economists hold a more positive view on cattle and hog prices, but concerns linger for the dairy sector.

Among the potential events garnering insufficient attention are the impacts of geopolitical risks and the war in Ukraine, potential recessions in China, workforce concerns, and weather-related issues warranting a broader conversation on climate. While the road ahead may be bumpy, agriculture is adapting and innovating, fueled by the resilient spirit of industry.

As weather extremes and geopolitical uncertainties persist, ag economists emphasize the importance of staying vigilant and agile, navigating the wild swings and geopolitical risks while holding on to the seeds of cautious optimism for the future.