Ag Canada Trims 2023-24, 2024-25 Canola Ending Stocks

Agriculture Canada has trimmed its 2024-25 canola ending stocks estimate from last month amid tighter beginning stocks. 

In monthly supply-demand estimates released Monday, Ag Canada pegged 2024-25 canola ending stocks at 2.2 million tonnes, down 300,000 from last month. 

The downgrade is due to a nearly 350,000-tonne reduction in the 2023-24 ending stocks estimate - beginning stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year - which fell to 2.748 million from 3.092 million in September. The decline in the 2023-24 ending stocks estimate reflects heavier feed, waste and dockage of 797,000 tonnes, versus 443,000 in September. 

With smaller beginning stocks, Ag Canada reduced its 2024-25 total canola supply estimate to 21.828 million tonnes from 22.172 million last month. Some of the impact of the smaller beginning stocks was offset by a minor reduction in this year’s feed, waste and dockage estimate, which dropped to 577,000 tonnes from 622,000 in September. 

According to Ag Canada, the October supply-demand report provides the final 2023-24 estimates for all crops. 

Ag Canada made no changes to its 2024-25 canola primary demand estimates from last month, leaving expected exports and crush steady at 7.5 million and 11.5 million tonnes, respectively. This year’s production was unchanged at 19.981 million tonnes. 

The 2023-24 and 2024-25 canola average price estimates were also unchanged from September at $715 and $635/tonne. 

In other changes this month, Ag Canada also lowered its 2023-24 and 2024-25 durum ending stocks estimates. 

Stocks for 2023-24 were dropped to 407,000 tonnes from 576,000 in September and 574,000 a year earlier as exports were revised up to 3.558 million from 3.469 million and total domestic use was hiked to 701,000 tonnes from 621,000. 

For 2024-25, ending stocks are now seen at 900,000 tonnes, down from 1.05 million from last month amid the downgrade in beginning stocks, which was partially offset by a small decrease in expected domestic use.