A major increase in the export forecast has tightened the old-crop canola ending stocks forecast, while new-crop stocks have been lowered as well, despite a higher production estimate.
In monthly supply-demand estimates on Monday, Agriculture Canada pegged 2023-24 canola ending stocks at 1.75 million tonnes, down 800,000 from the June estimate although still up from 1.506 million in 2022-23. Meanwhile, new-crop stocks were lowered 400,000 tonnes from last month to 2.1 million.
The drop in the old-crop ending stocks forecasts reflects a 1-million tonne increase in the export forecast from June to 7 million which was only partially offset by a 200,000-tonne reduction in feed, waste, and dockage to 583,000.
It is worth noting Ag Canada cut its old-crop canola export forecast by 1 million tonnes to 6 million back in May amid lagging shipments. More recently, however, exports have perked back up. The latest numbers from the Canadian Grain Commission showed total canola exports through July 14 of the 2023-24 crop year at 6.696 million tonnes. That is still down 15% on the year and 20% below the five-year average but represents a relatively strong finish to the old-crop marketing year, which ends July 31.