Ag Canada Lowers Old-, New-Crop Canola Ending Stocks Estimates

A major increase in the export forecast has tightened the old-crop canola ending stocks forecast, while new-crop stocks have been lowered as well, despite a higher production estimate. 

In monthly supply-demand estimates on Monday, Agriculture Canada pegged 2023-24 canola ending stocks at 1.75 million tonnes, down 800,000 from the June estimate although still up from 1.506 million in 2022-23. Meanwhile, new-crop stocks were lowered 400,000 tonnes from last month to 2.1 million. 

The drop in the old-crop ending stocks forecasts reflects a 1-million tonne increase in the export forecast from June to 7 million which was only partially offset by a 200,000-tonne reduction in feed, waste, and dockage to 583,000.  

It is worth noting Ag Canada cut its old-crop canola export forecast by 1 million tonnes to 6 million back in May amid lagging shipments. More recently, however, exports have perked back up. The latest numbers from the Canadian Grain Commission showed total canola exports through July 14 of the 2023-24 crop year at 6.696 million tonnes. That is still down 15% on the year and 20% below the five-year average but represents a relatively strong finish to the old-crop marketing year, which ends July 31. 

The old-crop canola crush was left steady from last month at 10.7 million tonnes, versus 9.961 million the previous year. 

On the new-crop side, Ag Canada is now projecting a 2024 canola crop of 18.628 million tonnes, up from the June estimate of 18.1 million and above the 2023 crop of 18.328 million. Ag Canada left its national canola yield estimate unchanged from last month at 37.8 bu/acre (up from 36.9 bu/acre last year), meaning all the increase was due to a larger harvested area estimate of 21.72 million acres. The increase in harvested area reflects Statistics Canada’s June acreage report, which estimated Canadian canola planted area at 22.007 million acres, up more than 600,000 from the agency’s March projection of 21.394 million. 

In addition to the smaller old-crop carryin, the decline in the new-crop ending stocks estimate is also due to a 100,000-tonne increase in the export forecast from last month to 7 million tonnes. At 11 million tonnes, the estimated 2024-25 crush is unchanged from June. 

Ag Canada reduced its old-crop average canola price forecast by $5/tonne from last month to $705, while the new-crop price outlook was cut $20/tonne to $680.