Canadian farmers will plant more canola in 2026, although lower yields mean production and ending stocks will fall, according to Agriculture
Canada’s first new-crop supply-demand estimates released Wednesday.
Meanwhile, barley and wheat (excl durum) area is expected to increase, while durum declines and oats hold about steady.
Ag Canada is forecasting this year’s canola planted area at just over 22 million acres, up 2% from 2025 and potentially the highest since 2021 when 22.27 million acres went into the ground. The expected increase was attributed to “crop rotation considerations, waning prices for other crops, and strong domestic demand.”
But with the average yield forecast to drop back to 38.7 bu/acre from 44.7 bu in 2025, production is forecast at 19.2 million tonnes, 12% below last year’s record high of 21.804 million. The smaller crop is projected to more than offset a heavy old-crop carry-in, meaning the total new-crop supply of 22.05 million would fall below the 2025-26 total supply of 23.501 million.