Abundant stocks to influence grain outlook

The grain market outlook for 2026 does not look a whole lot better than 2025 right now, says an analyst.

Western Producer markets desk analyst Bruce Burnett is slightly more optimistic about the cereal crop outlook than he is about oilseeds and pulses.

Nearby wheat futures continue to flirt with contract lows, so there is not a lot of downside potential.

“Prices should move higher in the first months of (2026) because all the bad news is in,” he said.

And then the market will turn its attention to the 2026 crop.

U.S. winter wheat area will likely be down and there are winterkill concerns in the Black Sea region, but probably not enough to shift the bearish market sentiment.

The good news is that demand is strong. Canadian wheat has been leaving the country at a record pace, but there will still likely be a burdensome carryout of the crop.

If the 2026 global wheat crop is smaller than it was in 2025, prices should level out or even climb somewhat, but don’t expect fireworks.

“Are we going back to levels of two or three years ago? Not with the current fundamentals,” said Burnett.