AAFC Develops New Drought Outlook Tool

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) new Drought Outlook tool predicts drought conditions 30-days into the future.

The tool was developed by AAFC Agroclimate Specialists Trevor Hadwen, Marilee Pregitzer, Dr. Catherine Champagne, Calvin Poff, and Richard Warren.

"We've linked our current conditions, the Canadian Drought Monitor, to the Environment Canada forecast," said Hadwen. "We've tried to link the current conditions of drought to that forecast by using a machine-based learning model that helps develop drought indices into the future and predicts the classification of drought in 30 days."

The Drought Outlook:

- Is the first tool of its kind in Canada for predicting future regional drought conditions.
- Forecasts 30 days into the future based on AAFC’s current monthly Canadian Drought Monitor assessment in combination with ECCC precipitation and temperature forecasts.

Forecasts will be made available through the national Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) for the purposes of informing producers and policy developers.