By Jason Franken
School of Agriculture
Western Illinois University
The U.S. cattle herd appears to continue its second consecutive year of decline within its typically decade long period of expansion and contraction. Currently, there are about 5.5% more beef cows in the U.S. than during the last low point in 2014. The first signs that the beef herd was leveling off came about a year and half ago, and recent reports indicate continuation of that trend, reflecting economics and drought in parts of cattle country.
The USDA’s Cattle Inventory report has the total number of cattle and calves on July 1 at 101 million head or 1.3% under last July’s inventory of 102 million head, compared to the average pre-report estimate of 0.5% lower, and also below the anticipated range. Most of the report’s numbers on beef cattle fall near the bottom end of pre-report estimates. All cows and heifers that have calved total 40.9 million head, also 1% below last July, which is driven by 2% fewer beef cows at 31.4 million head, as milk cows at 9.5 million head are 1.6% higher than last July. Beef replacement heifers, at 4.3 million head, are down about 2% from a year ago, compared to average expectations of 1% lower, while milk replacement heifers, at 4.1 million head, are 2.5% higher. The category of other heifers weighing over 500 pounds is down 2.6%. For the same weight category, steers are 1.4% lower and bulls are even with last July. The number of calves under 500 pounds, at 27.4 million head, is also down 1.4%. That’s still 2 million more than when the cattle herd was around its last low point in July 2014, so a return to similar feeder cattle prices in excess of $2 per pound seems unlikely at this time. The 2021 calf crop, estimated at 35.1 million head, is down slightly from last year, which may help hold down the number of animals on feed and beef production for the remainder of 2021 and into 2022.