Canada’s agriculture industry should still be able to meet a Liberal target that calls on the sector to grow its exports to $75 billion by 2025 — despite ongoing uncertainty about this country’s key trading markets, Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay says.
“Definitely, without any question. Because, if nothing else, the demand for food is going to be so big,” MacAulay said in a wide-ranging year-end interview with iPolitics.
“People have to eat and the market is going to be there. And, quite simply, we have to be in the position to provide that food.”
The $75 billion export target was included in the Liberals’ 2017 federal budget, which flagged the agriculture sector as one of a handful the government felt could spur future economic growth. Currently, Canadian agriculture exports hover around $55 billion.
However, Budget 2017 was released before Canada, the United States and Mexico started renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement — ongoing trade talks that are now raising questions about future trading relations.
“Everybody seems to be in favour of NAFTA,” Canada’s agriculture minister said when asked about his encounters with his American counterparts and industry.
“We’re not going to pre-judge anything in line of possible results in NAFTA. I feel the agriculture sector, and anybody I’ve discussed it with, feels it’s been such a powerful weapon for expansion for the agriculture sector. There could be a lot of different scenarios, but it’s too valuable.
“And, in this world – the dollar rules,” he added, noting agricultural exports have quadrupled across North America since NAFTA took effect.
As for NAFTA’s future, “I wouldn’t be in the position to start indicating what our second choices would be,” MacAulay said when asked about possible contingency plans for the farm and food sectors should NAFTA fail.
A series of U.S. demands at the negotiating table — including the elimination of Canada’s entire supply management system for dairy, eggs and poultry within a decade — have created deep divides between the negotiating parties, leading to speculation the Trump administration could walk away from NAFTA. MacAulay has repeatedly called the U.S. ask on supply management a “non-starter” and vowed federal negotiators will defend the sector.
“We have the best negotiators in the world, and I truly believe we do. Negotiations are negotiations and we’re going to defend our interests,” he said.
Canadian farm groups have pleaded repeatedly with Ottawa to take a “do no harm” approach to the NAFTA negotiations. South of the border, American farm groups have warned agriculture commodity markets are likely to collapse if the Trump administration even gives notice it plans to withdraw from the trade agreement.
But NAFTA isn’t the only source of uncertainty on the agriculture trade file.
Canada and China have been engaged in exploratory trade talks since 2016. Many in this country’s agriculture industry see China as a critical market if they’re to grow their exports. MacAulay recently announced $300 million in additional access for Canadian beef and pork products during a November trade mission to China.
In testimony before the House of Commons agriculture committee Nov. 30, MacAulay told MPs trade with China will be key to the sector meeting Ottawa’s $75 billion export target.
“Trade with China will help us get there. This is a vital market for our farmers,” he said, noting China’s population grows “by the population of Canada every year.”
China, the minister told MPs, has expressed a keen interest in Canadian agricultural goods like beef, pork and canola, and there is great market potential for Canadian farmers. Securing that market access, he said, requires diplomacy and a straightforward approach.
“In my view, with the Chinese, you have to sit down, look at them eye to eye and tell them what you have. They’ll tell you want they want and what they expect,” he said.
MacAulay doubled down on that message in his year-end interview. “They [China’s middle class] want to eat as well as you and I do. And they will get the food somewhere. I just want to make sure we get a portion of that trade and that’s my job as minister of agriculture and agri-food.”
Innovation is another critical piece of the puzzle, the minister said, adding that agriculture can’t meet its potential without new breakthroughs in productivity.
“We have no more land. They’re not going to give us any more land. We have to produce more than we have over the years,” MacAulay said, noting there’s “been a lapse” in scientific funding in Canada in recent years.
Source : ipolitics