2024 Farm Commodity Program Payment Estimates for Ohio Counties as of June 2025

By Seungki Lee and David Marrison et.al

Estimates of payments by ARC-CO (Agriculture Risk Coverage – County version) for the 2024 crop year use county yield estimates from USDA, RMA (US Department of Agriculture, Risk Management Agency) (https://webapp.rma.usda.gov/apps/RIRS/SCOYieldsRevenuesPaymentIndicators.aspx).  Legislation requires FSA (Farm Service Agency) to give primacy to RMA yields when determining ARC-CO payment, but other factors can be considered.  Thus, these ARC-CO payment estimates are likely to be closer to the FSA payment rate than the payment estimates made in May 2025 using county yield estimates from USDA, NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) (https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/).  Other data used to makes these payment estimates are 2024 crop year program parameters and market year price estimates from USDA, FSA (https://www.fsa.usda.gov/resources/programs/arc-plc/program-data).

FSA is expected to release official payment rates in October 2025.  They can differ notably from estimates.  Market year prices and county yields are not final.  They are also currently in a range where small changes can cause large changes in ARC-CO payment rates.  Use the estimates with caution.

June 2025 Estimates of 2024 Crop Year Payments:

1. ARC-CO:  Ohio corn and soybean payments are expected for some counties.  As a revenue program, ARC-CO payment calculations include yield.  2024 Ohio weather was highly variable.  Yields and thus county payment rates will be variable.  Payment estimates per base acre vary from $0 (50 counties) to $81 (Ross and Highland) for corn base and from $0 (17 counties) to $60 (Mercer) for soybean base (see appended maps).  These estimates include the 85% payment factor (i.e. 15% payment reduction factor).  Also appended are maps of county gross revenue (estimated price times estimated yield) plus estimated ARC-CO pay rate per acre.  They illustrate that ARC-CO payments are countercyclical to low market revenue (correlation between total revenue and ARC-CO pay rate is negative).  Higher revenue/yields are thus almost always preferred to an ARC-CO payment.  Note, some counties have irrigated and non-irrigated base acres.  Payment estimates are only for non-irrigated base since dryland production is far more common in Ohio.