2019-20 Crop Acres Still A Mystery

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) says for 2019-20, the area seeded by province by crop in Canada is a major uncertainty.

Across Eastern and Western Canada, moisture conditions remain below normal but this is not currently expected to have a significant impact on planting decisions.

Expected commodity prices, input costs and perceived delivery opportunities will play a significant role in determining the mix of crops. Assuming trend yields, AAFC is currently forecasting a marginal increase in total area seeded and total production in Canada.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase as higher supply more-than offsets the increase in exports.

World grain prices will continue to be pressured by an abundant supply of grain, relative to demand, at the global level but the impact on grain prices in Canada will continue to be partly mitigated by the low value of the Canadian dollar.

A survey-based report on seeding intentions for 2019 will be provided by Statistics Canada on April 24.

For 2018-19, total carry-out stocks of field crops are expected to decrease slightly to 15.3 million tonnes (Mt).

Lower carry-out stocks for most of the major grains, peas and lentils are largely offset by higher stocks of canola and durum.

Total exports of all field crops are forecast to increase marginally from the 2017-18 level, due to higher exports of grains and oilseeds (G&O) and higher exports of pulses and special crops (P&SC). Total domestic use of field crops is forecast to be similar to last year as the slight decrease in domestic use of G&O is largely offset by higher domestic use of P&SC.

Abundant world supplies or grain, relative to demand, have pressured world prices, but the weak Canadian dollar has provided strong support to prices in Canada.